Publications: Covid-19

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Craig, C., Neil, M., Fenton, N., McLachlan, S., Smalley, J., Guetzkow, J., Engler, J.,Rusell, D., Rose, J. (2022). Official mortality data for England reveal systematic undercounting of deaths occurring within first two weeks of Covid-19 vaccination. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12472.42248

 

Martin Neil, Norman Fenton, Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler, Dan Russell and Jessica Rose (2021), “Official mortality data for England suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination”, http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28055.09124 (this is a significantly revised version of http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483)

Martin Neil, Norman Fenton, Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler and Jessica Rose (2021), “Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination”, http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14176.20483

Martin Neil, Norman Fenton and Scott McLachlan (2021), "Discrepancies and inconsistencies in UK Government datasets compromise accuracy of mortality rate comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated", http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32817.10086  [A significantly updated version of the paper is here]

 

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & McLachlan, S. (2021). Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness
Why current studies (for or against vaccination) cannot be trusted and what we can do about it,

http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32655.30886

 

Neil, M and Fenton N E (2021), "Bayesian Hypothesis Testing and Hierarchical Modeling of Ivermectin Effectiveness", American Journal of Therapeutics, Vol 28, e577–e579, http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MJT.0000000000001450

 

Neil, M and Fenton N E (2021), "Bayesian hypothesis testing and hierarchical modelling of ivermectin effectiveness in treating Covid-19" http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.19703.75680 Updated version here

 

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & McLachlan, S. (2021). Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness: Why current studies (for or against vaccination) cannot be trusted and what we can do about it.  http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32655.30886

 

McLachlan,  S,  Osman, M,  Dube, K, Chiketero, P, Choi, Y, and Fenton N (2021) "Analysis of COVID-19 vaccine death reports from the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) Database",  http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26987.26402

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & McLachlan, S. (2021). What proportion of people with COVID-19 do not get symptoms? https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33939.60968

Fenton N. E, Neil M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2021), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity", Significance, 18(2). https://www.significancemagazine.com/701  Pre-print: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.56807  Blog post here.

Fenton, N. E., McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E.  Neil, M. (2021). "A  Bayesian network model for personalised COVID19 risk assessment and contact tracing" https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154286

Fenton, N. E.  (2020) How to explain an increasing proportion of people testing positive for COVID if there is neither an increase in proportion of genuine cases nor increase in the false positive rate. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27902.20806

Fenton, N. E., McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E.  Neil, M. (2021). "A  Bayesian network model for personalised COVID19 risk assessment and contact tracing" https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154286

 

Fenton, N E., Neil M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). A Response to the Call for Evidence Regarding COVID-19 Data
Transparency and Accountability  (UK Parliament, Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Commons Select Committee). https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/13847/default/  Also available here.

Butcher, R., & Fenton, N. E. (2020). Extending the range of symptoms in a Bayesian Network for the Predictive Diagnosis of COVID-19, medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.22.20217554

 

Prodhan, G., & Fenton, N. E. (2020). Extending the range of COVID-19 risk factors in a Bayesian network model for personalised risk assessment. medRxiv  https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215814

Fenton, N E. (2020). A Note on UK Covid19 death rates by religion: which groups are most at risk? http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07083

Fenton, N. E., McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E.,  Neil, M. (2020). "A privacy-preserving Bayesian network model for personalised COVID19 risk assessment and contact tracing". MedRxiv, 2020.07.15.20154286. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154286

Neil, M., Fenton, N E., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). "Coronavirus: our study suggests more people have had it than previously estimated", The Conversation, 26 June 2020

Neil, M., Fenton, N.E, Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). "Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher Infection Prevalence Rates and lower Fatality Rates than widely reported". Journal of Risk Research, 23 (7-8), 866-879 https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1778771 . Preprint: MedRxiv, 2020.05.25.20112466. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.25.20112466  Blog post here

Osman, M., Fenton, N. E. , McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G. A.,  Kyrimi, E, Neil, M, (2020)."The thorny problems of Covid-19 Contact Tracing Apps: The need for a holistic approach", Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Vol. 4, 57-61.  Published version. Also available here.

McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., McLachlan,  S., Hitman, G. A., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E, Neil, M, Fenton, N. E. (2020). "COVID-19 and contact tracing: literature review and additional analysis", submitted to BMC Public Health

Fenton, N E (2020), "Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing flawed conclusions-and how to fix the problem", http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08608  Blog post here

McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., McLachlan, S., Hitman, G. A., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E, Neil, M, Fenton, N. E. (2020). "The fundamental limitations of COVID-19 contact tracing methods and how to resolve them with a Bayesian network approach". https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.27042.66243

McLachlan, S., Lucas, P., Dube, K., Hitman, G. A., Osman, M., Kyrimi, E., … Fenton, N. E. (2020). Bluetooth Smartphone Apps: Are they the most private and effective solution for COVID-19 contact tracing?  http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06621

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). "COVID-19 infection and death rates: the need to incorporate causal explanations for the data and avoid bias in testing". Journal of Risk Research, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1756381

Fenton, N. E., Osman, M., Neil, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). Coronavirus: country comparisons are pointless unless we account for these biases in testing. The Conversation,  April 2, 2020  Spanish version: Coronavirus: las comparaciones entre países no tienen sentido a menos que tengamos en cuenta los sesgos en las pruebas.