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Publications: Law & Forensics



McLachlana S, Dube K, Choi Y, Said S, Rose L, and Fenton N E, (2023) "A Structure, Understanding, Recent Developments and New Definition for Consent,


Gill, R. D., Fenton, N., & Lagnado, D. (2022). Statistical Issues in Serial Killer Nurse Cases. Laws 2022, Vol. 11, Page 65, 11(5), 65.  full pdf


McLachlan, S., Dube, K., Schafer, B., Gillespie, A., Fenton, N. (2022) The Chaotic State of UK Drone Regulation.


McLachlan, S., Kyrimi, E., Dube, K., Fenton, N., & Webley, L. (2022). Lawmaps: Enabling Legal AI development through Visualisation of the Implicit Structure of Legislation and Lawyerly Process.  Artificial Intelligence and Law, 1–26.

McLachlan S, Neil M, Dube K, Bogani R, Fenton N E, and Schaffer B (2022), "Smart Automotive Technology Adherence to the Law: (De)Constructing Road Rules for Autonomous System Development, Verification and Safety", International Journal of Law and Information Technology,


Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2021). Bayesianism: Objections and Rebuttals. In Christian Dahlman, A. Stein, & G. Tuzet (Eds.), Philosophical Foundations of Evidence Law, Chapter 18, pp 267-286.


Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2021). Calculating the Likelihood Ratio for Multiple Pieces of Evidence.


Pilditch, T., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). "Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages". Cognition, Vol 204, 104343   Preprint (accepted version) here. Blog post here

Fenton, N.E. , Jamieson, A., Gomes, S., & Neil, M. (2020). "On the limitations of probabilistic claims about the probative value of mixed DNA profile evidence".

Fenton, N. E., Lagnado, D. A., Dahlman, C., & Neil, M. (2019). "The Opportunity Prior: A proof-based prior for criminal cases", Vol 18(4), 237-253 Law, Probability and Risk, DOI 10.1093/lpr/mgz007. Full paper from OUP.

Fenton, N. E.. (2019). When “absence of forensic evidence” is not “neutral.”

Fenton, N. E.., Neil, M., Yet, B., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). "Analyzing the Simonshaven Case using Bayesian Networks". Topics in Cognitive Science, 10.1111/tops.12417 .  The published version can be read here:   See also blog post

Neil, M., Fenton, N. E., Lagnado, D. A. & Gill, R. (2019), "Modelling competing legal arguments using Bayesian Model Comparison and Averaging".  Artififical Intelligence and Law Vol 27, 403-430 . The full published version can be read here. Pre-publication version (pdf)

Pilditch, T., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). "The zero-sum fallacy in evidence evaluation". Psychological Science Vol 30 (2),  pp 250-260  See also blog posting.

Fenton N.E. (2018). On the Role of Statistics in Miscarriages of Justice. In 3rd Meeting of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Miscarriages of Justice. House of Commons, London 25 June 2018.

Fenton N.E.,  & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680

Fenton N.E., Lagnado D, de Zoete, J, (2017) "Modeling complex legal cases as a Bayesian network (BN) using idioms and sensitivity analysis with the Collins case as a complete example",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,   Sept 2017. 10.13140/RG.2.2.35414.55360

de Zoete, J, Fenton N.E. ,"Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science",  ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA,   Sept 2017, 10.13140/RG.2.2.17798.47689

Balding, D., Fenton, N. E., Gill, R., Lagnado, D. & Schneps, L. "Twelve Guiding Principles and Recommendations for Dealing with Quantitative Evidence in Criminal Law". (2017). Isaac Newton Institute Report INI 16061,

Fenton N.E, Neil M, Berger D, “Bayes and the Law”, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 3, 2016 (June), pp 51-77 .Pre-publication version here and here is the Supplementary Material See also blog posting


Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A, "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version   See also blog posting

Smit, N. M., Lagnado, D. A., Morgan, R. M., & Fenton, N. E. (2016). "Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case".  Crime Science, 2016, 5: 9, DOI 10.1186/s40163-016-0057-6 (open source). Published version pdf.  See also blog posting

Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B., Fenton, N., Neil, M., & Marsh, W. (2016). Value of Information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine.  66, pp 41-52 doi:10.1016/j.artmed.2015.09.002   Pre-publication version here.

Fenton NE, "Handling Anonymous Witness Evidence using Bayesian Network idioms" Working paper.

Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases",  15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42, ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-3522-5. Open access version.

de Zoete, J, Sjerps, M, Lagnado,D,  Fenton, N.E. (2015), "Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian Networks" Law, Science & Justice, 55(3), 209-217. http://doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2014.11.005  Pre-publication draft here.  Slides from ICFIS 2014 Presentation


Constantinou, A., Freestone M., Marsh, W., Fenton, N. E. , Coid, J. (2015) "Risk assessment and risk management of violent reoffending among prisoners",   Expert Systems With Applications 42 (21), 7511-7529. Pre-publication draft here.  Published version:

Fenton, N. E. (2014). Assessing evidence and testing appropriate hypotheses. Science & Justice, 54(6), 502-504.  Pre-publication draft. Published version:   

Fenton, N.E, Lagnado, D., Hsu, A., Berger, D., & Neil, M. (2014). Response to “on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.”. Science & Justice : Journal of the Forensic Science Society, 54(4), 319–20. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2014.05.005

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & Hsu, A. (2014). "Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors". Artificial Intelligence and Law, 22. 1-28 .  Pre-publication draft here. Note that Table 2 is wrong in the published version. See change

Fenton, N. E., Neil, M. (2014) "Who put Bella in the wych elm?  A Bayesian analysis of a 70 year-old mystery", Technical Report produced for BBC Radio 4 Programme Punt-PI, 2 August 2014

Fenton, N. E., D. Berger, D. Lagnado,  M. Neil and A. Hsu, (2014). "When ‘neutral’ evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case)",  Science and Justice, 54(4), 274-287  (pre-publication draft here)


Fenton, N. E., D. Lagnado and M. Neil (2013). "A General Structure for Legal Arguments Using Bayesian Networks."   Cognitive Science 37, 61-102  Pre-publication version here.

Lagnado, D. A., N. E. Fenton and M. Neil (2013). "Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning." Argument and Computation, 2013,  4(1), 46-63

Fenton, N. E. (2011). "Science and law: Improve statistics in court." Nature 479: 36-37.  Paper on Nature online website is here.  An extended draft on which this was based is here

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M. (2011), 'Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks', Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, 114-151, 2011 ISSN 1440-4982 (extended preprint draft here).

Fenton, N. and Neil, M. (2010). "Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments." Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 43: 485-495,
Preprint here.

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