Publications: Law & Forensics
Gill, R. D., Fenton, N., & Lagnado, D. (2022). Statistical Issues in Serial Killer Nurse Cases. Laws 2022, Vol. 11, Page 65, 11(5), 65. https://doi.org/10.3390/LAWS11050065 full pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2075-471X/11/5/65/pdf
McLachlan, S., Dube, K., Schafer, B., Gillespie, A., Fenton, N. (2022) The Chaotic State of UK Drone Regulation. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25709.87521
McLachlan, S., Kyrimi, E., Dube, K., Fenton, N., & Webley, L. (2022). Lawmaps: Enabling Legal AI development through Visualisation of the Implicit Structure of Legislation and Lawyerly Process. Artificial Intelligence and Law, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-021-09298-0
McLachlan S, Neil M, Dube K, Bogani R, Fenton N E, and Schaffer B (2022), "Smart Automotive Technology Adherence to the Law: (De)Constructing Road Rules for Autonomous System Development, Verification and Safety", International Journal of Law and Information Technology, https://doi.org/10.1093/ijlit/eaac002
Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2021). Bayesianism: Objections and Rebuttals. In Christian Dahlman, A. Stein, & G. Tuzet (Eds.), Philosophical Foundations of Evidence Law, Chapter 18, pp 267-286. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198859307.003.0019
Fenton, N., & Neil, M. (2021). Calculating the Likelihood Ratio for Multiple Pieces of Evidence. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.05328
Pilditch, T., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). "Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages". Cognition, Vol 204, 104343 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104343 Preprint (accepted version) here. Blog post here
Fenton, N.E. , Jamieson, A., Gomes, S., & Neil, M. (2020). "On the limitations of probabilistic claims about the probative value of mixed DNA profile evidence". http://arxiv.org/abs/2009.08850
Fenton, N. E., Lagnado, D. A., Dahlman, C., & Neil, M. (2019). "The Opportunity Prior: A proof-based prior for criminal cases", Vol 18(4), 237-253 Law, Probability and Risk, DOI 10.1093/lpr/mgz007. Full paper from OUP.
Fenton, N. E.. (2019). When “absence of forensic evidence” is not “neutral.” https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.14517.73440
Fenton, N. E.., Neil, M., Yet, B., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). "Analyzing the Simonshaven Case using Bayesian Networks". Topics in Cognitive Science, 10.1111/tops.12417 . The published version can be read here: https://rdcu.be/bqYxp See also blog post
Neil, M., Fenton, N. E., Lagnado, D. A. & Gill, R. (2019), "Modelling competing legal arguments using Bayesian Model Comparison and Averaging". Artififical Intelligence and Law Vol 27, 403-430 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s10506-019-09250-3. The full published version can be read here. Pre-publication version (pdf)
Pilditch, T., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). "The zero-sum fallacy in evidence evaluation". Psychological Science Vol 30 (2), pp 250-260 http://doi.org/10.1177/0956797618818484 See also blog posting.
Dewitt, S., Lagnado, D., & Fenton, N. E. (2018). "Updating Prior Beliefs Based on Ambiguous Evidence". In CogSci 2018 (pp. 306–311). Madison Wisconsin, 25-28 July 2018. ISBN: 978-0-9911967-8-4. see also Blog Post
Fenton, N. E. "The case of the Kandinsky painting and Bayes' theorem", Nov 2018, DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29551.48804
Fenton N.E. (2018). On the Role of Statistics in Miscarriages of Justice. In 3rd Meeting of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Miscarriages of Justice. House of Commons, London 25 June 2018. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.22791.70567
Fenton N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680
Fenton N.E., Lagnado D, de Zoete, J, (2017) "Modeling complex legal cases as a Bayesian network (BN) using idioms and sensitivity analysis with the Collins case as a complete example", ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA, Sept 2017. 10.13140/RG.2.2.35414.55360
de Zoete, J, Fenton N.E. ,"Automatic Generation of Bayesian networks in Forensic Science", ICFIS2017 (10th International Conference on Forensic Inference and Statistics), Mineapolis, USA, Sept 2017, 10.13140/RG.2.2.17798.47689
Balding, D., Fenton, N. E., Gill, R., Lagnado, D. & Schneps, L. "Twelve Guiding Principles and Recommendations for Dealing with Quantitative Evidence in Criminal Law". (2017). Isaac Newton Institute Report INI 16061, http://www.newton.ac.uk/files/preprints/ni16061.pdf
Fenton N.E, Neil M, Berger D, “Bayes and the Law”, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, Volume 3, 2016 (June), pp 51-77 http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-041715-033428 .Pre-publication version here and here is the Supplementary Material See also blog posting
Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A, "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012 See also blog posting
Smit, N. M., Lagnado, D. A., Morgan, R. M., & Fenton, N. E. (2016). "Using Bayesian networks to guide the assessment of new evidence in an appeal case". Crime Science, 2016, 5: 9, DOI 10.1186/s40163-016-0057-6 (open source). Published version pdf. See also blog posting
Constantinou, A. C., Yet, B., Fenton, N., Neil, M., & Marsh, W. (2016). Value of Information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. 66, pp 41-52 doi:10.1016/j.artmed.2015.09.002 Pre-publication version here.
Fenton NE, "Handling Anonymous Witness Evidence using Bayesian Network idioms" Working paper.
Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases", 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42, ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-3522-5. Open access version.
de Zoete, J, Sjerps, M, Lagnado,D, Fenton, N.E. (2015), "Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian Networks" Law, Science & Justice, 55(3), 209-217. http://doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2014.11.005 Pre-publication draft here. Slides from ICFIS 2014 Presentation
Constantinou, A., Freestone M., Marsh, W., Fenton, N. E. , Coid, J. (2015) "Risk assessment and risk management of violent reoffending among prisoners", Expert Systems With Applications 42 (21), 7511-7529. Pre-publication draft here. Published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.05.025
Fenton, N. E. (2014). Assessing evidence and testing appropriate hypotheses. Science & Justice, 54(6), 502-504. Pre-publication draft. Published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2014.10.007
Fenton, N.E, Lagnado, D., Hsu, A., Berger, D., & Neil, M. (2014). Response to “on the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.”. Science & Justice : Journal of the Forensic Science Society, 54(4), 319–20. doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2014.05.005
Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., & Hsu, A. (2014). "Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors". Artificial Intelligence and Law, 22. 1-28 . http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10506-013-9147-x Pre-publication draft here. Note that Table 2 is wrong in the published version. See change
Fenton, N. E., Neil, M. (2014) "Who put Bella in the wych elm? A Bayesian analysis of a 70 year-old mystery", Technical Report produced for BBC Radio 4 Programme Punt-PI, 2 August 2014
Fenton, N. E., D. Berger, D. Lagnado, M. Neil and A. Hsu, (2014). "When ‘neutral’ evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case)", Science and Justice, 54(4), 274-287 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2013.07.002 (pre-publication draft here)
Fenton, N. E., D. Lagnado and M. Neil (2013). "A General Structure for Legal Arguments Using Bayesian Networks." Cognitive Science 37, 61-102 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cogs.12004. Pre-publication version here.
Lagnado, D. A., N. E. Fenton and M. Neil (2013). "Legal idioms: a framework for evidential reasoning." Argument and Computation, 2013, 4(1), 46-63 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19462166.2012.682656
Fenton, N. E. (2011). "Science and law: Improve statistics in court." Nature 479: 36-37. Paper on Nature online website is here. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/479036a An extended draft on which this was based is here.
Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M. (2011), 'Avoiding Legal Fallacies in Practice Using Bayesian Networks', Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, 114-151, 2011 ISSN 1440-4982 (extended preprint draft here).
Fenton, N. and Neil, M. (2010). "Comparing risks of alternative medical diagnosis using Bayesian arguments." Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 43: 485-495, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2010.02.004