Publications: Football prediction
Constantinou, A. C. and Fenton, N.E. (2017). Towards Smart-Data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance. Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol 124, pages 93-104, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2017.03.005 Open access pre-publication version. See blog posting.
Constantinou A and Fenton NE. "Improving predictive accuracy using Smart-Data rather than Big-Data: A case study of soccer teams' evolving performance" In Proceedings of the 13th UAI Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop (BMAW 2016), 32nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2016), New York City, USA, June 25-29, 2016. Published version
Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E., & Pollock, L. (2014). Bayesian networks for unbiased assessment of referee bias in Association Football. Psychology of Sport & Exercise, 15(5) 538–547, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2014.05.009. Pre-publication draft here.
Constantinou, Anthony C. & Fenton, N. E. (2013). Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market, Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Vol. 7(2), 41-70. Journal link here. Pre-publication draft here.
Constantinou, A., N. E. Fenton and M. Neil (2013) "Profiting from an Inefficient Association Football Gambling Market: Prediction, Risk and Uncertainty Using Bayesian Networks". Knowledge-Based Systems. Vol 50, 60-86 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2013.05.008
Constantinou, A. C. and N. E. Fenton (2013). "Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries." Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 9(1): 37-50. Pre-publication version http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2012-0036
Constantinou, A., N. E. Fenton and M. Neil (2012). ""pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes." Knowledge Based Systems, 36, 322-339. Pre-publication version. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2012.07.008
Constantinou, A. , Fenton, N.E., "Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecasting models", Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 8 (1), Article 1, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1418 Preprint draft here.
Joseph A, Fenton NE, Neil M, "Predicting football results using Bayesian Nets and other Machine Learning Techniques", Knowledge Based Systems, Volume 19, Issue 7, Pages 544-553, Nov 2006 Old Version with additional data is here.