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Publications: Causal reasoning and behaviour


Hunte, J L, Osman, M, Fenton, N E., Neil, N and Bechlivanidis C (2024) “The effect of risk communication on consumers’ risk perception, risk tolerance and utility of smart and non-smart home appliances”, Safety Science


Stephen H. Dewitt, Nine Adler, Carmen Li, Ekaterina Stoilova, Norman E. Fenton, David A. Lagnado (2023) "Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem", Cognitive Science 47 (7) e13313,


Osman, M., McLachlan, S., Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., Löfstedt, R., & Meder, B. (2020). "Learning from behavioural changes that fail". Trends  in Cognitive Science, Blog post hereAccepted version (pdf).

Cruz, N., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). Explaining away, augmentation, and the noisy assumption of independence. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 502751. Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.

Fenton, N E., Neil, M., & Frazier, S. (2020). The role of collider bias in understanding statistics on racially biased policing.

Pilditch, T., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). "Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages". Cognition, Vol 204, 104343   Preprint (accepted version) here. Blog post here

Dewitt, S., Fenton, N. E., & Liefgreen, AliceLagnado, D. A. (2020). Propensities and second order uncertainty: a modified taxi cab problem. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 503233.  Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.

Fenton, N.E., Hitman, G. A., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). Causal explanations, error rates, and human judgment biases missing from the COVID-19 narrative and statistics. PsyArXiv Preprints.

Dewitt S.H., Hsu A.S., Lagnado D.A., Desai S.C,  Fenton N.E. (2019) "Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies",  COGSCI 2019,  41st Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Montreal, Canada, July 24th – Saturday July 27th, 2019 . Accepted paper (pdf)

Neil, M., Fenton, N. E., Osman, M., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment. Journal of Risk Research, to 10.1080/13669877.2019.1606454.  Pre-publication version (pdf).

Osman, M., Fenton N.E.., Pilditch, T., Lagnado, D. A., & Neil. M. (2018). "Who do we trust on social policy interventions". Basic and Applied Social Psychology, Vol 40 (5), 249-268 Open access version pdf

Fenton N.E.,  & Neil, M. (2018). "Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk", Significance 15(1), 12-15. Full pdf  also available here

Fenton N.E.,  & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680

Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A (2016), "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version   See also blog posting

Fenton NE, Neil M, Constantinou A (2015) "Simpson’s Paradox and the implications for medical trials". Working paper. Associared model.

Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases",  15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law  (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42, ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-3522-5. Open access version.

Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'The use of Bayes and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk', UPGRADE, the Journal of CEPIS (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies), 12(5), 10-21, 2011. Published verion here.

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