Publications: Causal reasoning and behaviour
Osman, M., McLachlan, S., Fenton, N. E., Neil, M., Löfstedt, R., & Meder, B. (2020). "Learning from behavioural changes that fail". Trends in Cognitive Science, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.009 Blog post here. Accepted version (pdf).
Cruz, N., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). Explaining away, augmentation, and the noisy assumption of independence. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 502751. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.502751 Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.
Fenton, N E., Neil, M., & Frazier, S. (2020). The role of collider bias in understanding statistics on racially biased policing. http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.08406
Pilditch, T., Hahn, U., Fenton, N. E., & Lagnado, D. A. (2020). "Dependencies in evidential reports: The case for informational advantages". Cognition, Vol 204, 104343 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104343 Preprint (accepted version) here. Blog post here
Dewitt, S., Fenton, N. E., & Liefgreen, AliceLagnado, D. A. (2020). Propensities and second order uncertainty: a modified taxi cab problem. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 503233. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.503233 Accepted version (pdf). Blog post here.
Fenton, N.E., Hitman, G. A., Neil, M., Osman, M., & McLachlan, S. (2020). Causal explanations, error rates, and human judgment biases missing from the COVID-19 narrative and statistics. PsyArXiv Preprints. https://doi.org/10.31234/OSF.IO/P39A4
Dewitt S.H., Hsu A.S., Lagnado D.A., Desai S.C, Fenton N.E. (2019) "Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies", COGSCI 2019, 41st Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, Montreal, Canada, July 24th – Saturday July 27th, 2019 . Accepted paper (pdf)
Neil, M., Fenton, N. E., Osman, M., & Lagnado, D. A. (2019). Causality, the critical but often ignored component guiding us through a world of uncertainties in risk assessment. Journal of Risk Research, to 10.1080/13669877.2019.1606454. Pre-publication version (pdf).
Osman, M., Fenton N.E.., Pilditch, T., Lagnado, D. A., & Neil. M. (2018). "Who do we trust on social policy interventions". Basic and Applied Social Psychology, Vol 40 (5), 249-268 https://doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2018.1469986. Open access version pdf
Fenton N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Lawnmowers versus terrorists: A highly misleading view of risk", Significance 15(1), 12-15. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2018.01104.x/full Full pdf also available here
Fenton N.E., & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680
Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A (2016), "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012 See also blog posting
Fenton NE, Neil M, Constantinou A (2015) "Simpson’s Paradox and the implications for medical trials". Working paper. Associared model.
Chockler, H., Fenton N.E., Koeppens J., Lagnado, D. (2015), "Causal Analysis for Attributing Responsibility in Legal Cases", 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence & Law (ICAIL 2015), San Diego, June 8-12, 2015, pp 33-42, ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-3522-5. Open access version.
Fenton, N.E. and Neil, M., 'The use of Bayes and causal modelling in decision making, uncertainty and risk', UPGRADE, the Journal of CEPIS (Council of European Professional Informatics Societies), 12(5), 10-21, 2011. Published verion here.