Publications: Probability, Statistics and Smart data


Fenton N. E, Neil M, McLachlan S, Osman M (2020), "Misinterpreting statistical anomalies and risk assessment when analysing Covid-19 deaths by ethnicity", 10.13140/RG.2.2.18957.56807 Also here: preprint. Blog post here. To appear in Significance.


Fenton, N E (2020), "Why most studies into COVID19 risk factors may be producing flawed conclusions-and how to fix the problem",  Blog post here

Fenton, N E., Neil, M., & Frazier, S. (2020). The role of collider bias in understanding statistics on racially biased policing.

Fenton, N. E. (2020). "The Deer Hunter: A lesson in the basics of risk and probability assessment". (also available here). Blog post here and video

Fenton N.E. (2018), "Handling Uncertain Priors in Basic Bayesian Reasoning", July 2018,

Fenton N.E.,  & Neil, M. (2018). "Criminally Incompetent Academic Misinterpretation of Criminal Data - and how the Media Pushed the Fake News", Open Access Report 10.13140/RG.2.2.32052.55680

Constantinou, A. C. and Fenton, N.E. (2017). Towards Smart-Data: Improving predictive accuracy in long-term football team performance. Knowledge-Based Systems, Vol 124, pages 93-104,  Open access pre-publication version.   See blog posting.

Fenton NE, Neil M, Lagnado D, Marsh W, Yet B, Constantinou A, "How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models", Knowledge-Based Systems, Dec 2016 Vol 113, pages 39-50. Gold access full version   See also blog posting

Constantinou A and Fenton NE. "Improving predictive accuracy using Smart-Data rather than Big-Data: A case study of soccer teams' evolving performance"  In Proceedings of the 13th UAI Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop (BMAW 2016), 32nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2016), New York City, USA, June 25-29, 2016. Published version

Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N.E, & Neil, M. (2016). Integrating expert knowledge with data in causal probabilistic networks: preserving the data-driven expectations when the expert variables remain unobserved. Expert Systems with Apllications, 56 pp 197-208,   Pre-publication version.

Fenton, N.E., 2015. Debunking report that claims gender diverse executive Boards outperform male-only Boards,  Queen Mary University of London, Report Number BK_TR_05_15,

Fenton NE, Neil M, Constantinou A (2015) "Simpson’s Paradox and the implications for medical trials". Working paper. Associared model.

Fenton, N. E, "Another machine learning fable", March 2015 DOI:

Fenton, N. E,  "Moving from big data and machine learning to smart data and causal modelling: a simple example from consumer research and marketing", March 2015. DOI:

Yet, B., Perkins Z., Fenton, N.E., Tai, N., Marsh, W., (2014)  "Not Just Data: A Method for Improving Prediction with Knowledge", Journal of Biomedical Informatics, Vol 48, 28-37 (see here for details of model)

Fenton NE, "A simple story illustrating why pure machine learning (without expert input) may be doomed to fail and totally unnecessary", 12 Nov 2012