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Comparing all-cause mortality rate by age group: vaccinated v unvaccinated

Updated: Oct 28, 2021

In a previous article we argued that to determine the overall risk-benefit of Covid-19 vaccines it is crucial to be able to compare the all-cause mortality rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated in each different age category. However, current publicly available UK Government statistics do not include raw data on mortality by age category and vaccination status. Hence, we are unable to make the necessary comparison. In attempting to reverse engineer estimates of mortality by age category and vaccination status from the various relevant public Government datasets we found numerous discrepancies and inconsistencies which indicate that the Office for National Statistics reports on vaccine effectiveness are grossly underestimating the number of unvaccinated people. Hence, official statistics may be underestimating the mortality rates for vaccinated people in each age category. Although we have not subjected this data to statistical testing, the potential implications of these results on the effects of vaccination on all-cause mortality, and by implication, the future of the vaccination programme is profound.

Full paper:

Martin Neil, Norman Fenton and Scott McLachlan (2021), "Discrepancies and inconsistencies in UK Government datasets compromise accuracy of mortality rate comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated", [Update: there are errors in this version on ResearchGate). A significantly updated version of the paper is here]

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