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Can our detractors decide if vaccinees are especially healthy or especially unhealthy?

Updated: Sep 30, 2022



One of the key findings in our various analyses of the ONS (Office for National Statistics) vaccine mortality surveillance data was that there were spikes in non-covid mortality in the unvaccinated that coincided with peak vaccine rollouts. We demonstrated that the main plausible explanation for such an obvious anomaly was that people dying shortly after vaccination were being wrongly classified as unvaccinated deaths. Whether through policy or error this certainly happens (indeed in Sweden a reply to an FOI confirms that those dying within 14 days of vaccination are routinely counted as unvaccinated).

Once the ONS data were adjusted for these anomalies there was no evidence that the vaccines reduced all-cause mortality.


Our detractors (mainly from the 'mutton crew'), who are always desperate to suppress any data suggesting the vaccines were not as safe and effective as claimed, said that there was an alternative explanation for the anomalies. They argued that the anomalies were the result of especially ill people being denied the vaccine; so there was, they claimed, a 'healthy vaccinee effect' (or equivalently a 'moribund unvaccinated effect'). Here is one of the key mutton crew repeating that explanation this week (while attacking the recent paper by Dr Aseem Malthotra exposing problems with the covid vaccines):


The ONS even stated the 'healthy vaccinee effect' as an explanation in a subsequent report after we identified the anomolies in their data. But the notion of the 'healthy vaccinee' was contradicted by the NHS guidelines (which required the most critically ill people to be prioritised for the vaccine, not denied it) and we know that even terminally ill patients in care homes were given the vaccine as a priority. Moreover, the observed data could not be theoretically simulated by a 'healthy vaccinee' effect.


Another problem with the ONS claim that its data shows lower (age standardised) mortality rates in the vaccinated is that it is based on a subset of the England population which likely massively underestimates the true national proportion of unvaccinated and hence underestimates the mortality rate of the vaccinated. Using the UKHSA and NIMS data on numbers unvaccinated results in higher (age standardised) mortality rates. In fact, there is increasing evidence now that the vaccinated have the higher mortality rates. And that brings us to a very interesting comment by one of the people - 'Health Nerd' (@GidMK on twitter) - who has been especially vocal in trying to delegitimise our work, and who is the key source of authority for the mutton crew. He, like John Bye, has been outspoken in trying to delegitmise the recent paper by Dr Aseem Malthotra. In a long twitter thread he wrote:



So, in contrast to the previously claimed 'healthy vaccinee' effect used to explain the non-covid mortality spikes, the same people are now claiming an 'unhealthy vaccinee' effect to explain the higher age-standardized mortality rates of the vaccinated.


Can these people please make up their minds as to whether vaccinees are especially healthy or especially unhealthy?

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A bit unrelated and I apologise for that. As a part of a course in data mining I am doing a cross country comparison of vaccination rate vs covid deaths. It's the first time I'm doing a multivariate linear regression, so there's of course a chance I'm doing something wrong. I am getting something like p=0.700 for vaccination rate vs covid deaths after adjusting for confounders, so there seems to be no clear relationship between them. Will be fun to see the reaction of my teacher when I hand in the project.


Anyway, is there any value to posting my results online somewhere, on a substack perhaps? Or has this thing been done multiple times already (by people who are…

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I would like to suggest that you publish your code, as well as your report on GitHub. Getting it noticed is likely to be the biggest problem. That is, its much more difficult to attract an audience to a published result, than it is to publish that result on the Internet.

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The US data shows vaccination rates of a given county are correlated with higher income, less smoking, less obesity, longer life expectancy, lower death rates, and more physical activity. Healthier, in other words. https://inumero.substack.com/p/we-dont-know-if-covid-vaccinations

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Nir Tsabar
Nir Tsabar
30 sept 2022

Those are not coincidences. They are also no proofs of causation. We should have never derived medical approval from observational research anyway. Only RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS are valid proofs and NONE proved any net survival (or hospitalization) benefit with COVID Vaccines.

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Norman Fenton
Norman Fenton
30 sept 2022
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The problem is the RCTs for the vaccine were flawed. Obserational studies can be good as long as you understand underlying causal explanations for biases and missing data

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When the science and the evidence doesn't change, but asserts itself more forcefully and publicly, the Mutton Crew change their explanations.

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Berry Ruby
Berry Ruby
29 sept 2022

Urghh, this is just a nightmare with the trolls making the arena even more confusing for those trying to follow the fraud. One additional thing to consider, Norman, and I’m not sure of the relevance in the UK context (but it seems every country targeted is experiencing much of a muchness) is the status of those at ‘high risk’ as jabbed or not being formally documented. There are many anecdotes from mandated-out healthcare workers here in NZ, who outline how the elderly in residential homes were frequently jabbed against their wishes/knowledge, or the wishes of their (Enduring) Power of Attorney. Hence there are likely to be an unknown number of deaths who were designated ‘unvaccinated’ because literally only the vaccinator…

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Norman Fenton
Norman Fenton
30 sept 2022
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This is an imporant observation. There is anecdotal evidence it also happened in the UK

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