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Consulting: smart data analytics for risk assessment


  • Software reliability and project risk  (with Phillips, Siemens, Motorola, Orange, ERA Technology, Israel Aircraft Industries)

  • Operational risk in finance (with Blackrock, Royal Bank of Canada, Milliman, VocalLink)

  • Consumer  (with Proctor and Gamble)

  • Defence, Intelligence and cybersecurity risk  (with QinetiQ, DSTL, IARPA)

  • Environment risk (with World Agroforestry Centre ICRAF, BBC)

  • Safety risk assessment transport (with National Air Traffic Services, Cival Aviation Authority, Network Rail, Lloyds Register)

  • Safety risk assessment products (with Medtronic, Lennox)

  • Consultant to the BARD project funded by the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)  to use Bayesian networks to improve decision-making for intelligence/security analysts. 

  • Independent assessor of EU Project DEPLOY, April 2009.

  • Advised a major international reinsurance company on methods for modeling catastrophic events, Dec 2008-May 2009)

  • Expert witness (in Bayesian analysis/decision-making) for the claimant on a medical negligence case against the NHS.  (July-August 2008)

  • Expert witness on probabilistic risk analysis in the case of R vs Levi Bellfield at the Old Bailey (July 2007 – Feb 2008). My first report focused on the uncertainty relating to the vehicle identification in the case of the Marsha McDonnell murder. My second report highlighted a number of fallacies in the Prosecution Opening and was used as the basis for the Defence case. 

  • Since 1998: continual development of the AgenaRisk software system, which is now a general-purpose risk assessment tool, with thousands of users world-wide. This work has also involved me managing dozens of individual software projects building bespoke systems (normally to do risk assessment of specific critical systems) for key clients

  • 2008-2009: Principal Researcher of the EPSRc Digital Economy research cluster DIADEM (Data Information and Analysis for clinical DEcision Making)

  • Jan-Aug 2006:  Expert witness (on software quality and risk assessment) on a major legal case involving safety critical software in the rail industry.  The case was settled shortly before coming to court and my expert report (of some 200 pages) was crucial in securing a favourable settlement for the party that had engaged me.

  • 2006-2008: Led the Queen Mary University Computer Science Department REF 2008 submission resulting in the Department named as most improved Computer Science Dept.

  • 2005-2009: Worked with Royal Bank of Canada (Toronto) to improve their risk assessment for critical IT Projects

  • 2001-2010 Worked with Motorola to develop models and software to achieve improved predictions of field reliability of hardware components.

  • 1999-2005: Worked with Philips (sites in Bangalore, Bruges, Eindhoven, and Redhill) to develop Bayesian net models and software for improved prediction of software defects in embedded electronics systems. The resulting models and software enabled Philips to achieve 95% accuracy in software defect prediction, giving them greater confidence in decisions for testing and release of components.

  • 2005-2008 Principal Researcher in the EPSRC project eXdecide that developed models and software for controlling and predicting quality in agile software projects.

  • 2001-2004: Principal Researcher in the major collaborative Project MODIST (Models of Uncertainty and Risk for Distributed Software Development) that was part-funded by the EC and was concerned with improved predictions of quality in large distributed software projects. Partners were Agena, Israel Aircraft Industries, QinetiQ and Philips.

  • 2000-2003: Principal Researcher on the EPSRC/DTI project SIMP (Systems Integration for Major Projects). The key partner was BAe Systems, with whom I developed a model and software for assessing risk in one of their most critical projects.

  • 1999-2004 Worked with NATS (National Air Traffic Services) on numerous projects involving a) safety critical software assessment and b) improved risk prediction of flight management systems

  • 2000-2003: Principal Researcher on the EPSRC project SCULLY (Scaling up Bayesian Nets for Software Risk Assessment).

  • 2000-01 Worked with Railtrack to build a bespoke model and software system to predict whole-life safety and reliability of railway components.

  • 2002-2005 Worked with QinetiQ to build bespoke model and software system to predict whole-like military vehicle costs.

  • 1999-2003: Worked with QinetiQ to develop the revolutionary system TRACS which predicts military vehicle reliability. The system is still used routinely by QinetiQ for evaluating vehicle tender bids on behalf of the MOD.

  • 1998-2000: Worked with Siemens to assess software reliability in telephone switching systems

  • 1996-2000: Principal Researcher in the EC-funded collaborative SERENE (SafEty and Risk Evaluation using bayesian Nets)

  • 1997-2000: Principal Researcher in the EPSRC project IMPRESS: (IMproving the software PRocESS using bayesian nets)

  • 1993-1997: Principal Researcher in the EPSRC/DTI project DATUM (Dependability Assessment of Safety Critical Systems Through the Unification of Measurable Evidence). Key partners was Lloyds Register. This project achieved the breakthrough of improved safety predictions using Bayesian nets.

  • I have been involved in numerous Standards work, the most relevant to this project being a) my membership of the BSI committee developing Standard BS5760 on Software Reliability and b) Principle Research of the SMARTIE project (involving British Rail, Brameur and Praxis) that developed a method for improved use of safety critical software standards.

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