About that ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated....
Updated: Oct 18, 2022
However they spin it the ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated compromises their conclusions on vaccine safety.
13 Oct 2022 Update: This work has been censored again by the preprint server arXiv. I submitted this version of the paper below. Having got an automated message from them saying it was scheduled to be announced on 10 October they now say it “was identified by arXiv staff or moderators as needing further attention.” It is now "on hold". Based on my recent experience that means they will not accept it. The whole point of these preprint servers is to put out papers not yet reviewed. Until I started submitting papers highlighting issues with covid data I'd never even heard of a paper being put on hold and rejected by them. Fortunately ResearchGate still allows anything to be published. However, as it gets funding from Wellcome Trust and Bill Gates it's not clear how long that will last....
Spoiler: In May 2022 the ONS estimated just 8% of adults in England were unvaccinated. But this was based on their (biased) subset of the England population. If their estimate is correct and other independent estimates for the whole population are also correct then between 69% and 99.6% of adults missing from their sample are unvaccinated.
Here are the formal calculations (this is a taster for a more extensive analysis of the latest ONS vaccine mortality surveillance report):
John Campbell has done a 13 minute video summarising the issue and my paper:
Interesting take on how pop culture shapes everyday style. It's always fun seeing how a movie or show turns into outfits people actually want to wear. Good read. Dooms Day 2026 Black Hoodie
Interesting perspective on how statistical methods and population estimates can completely change the public narrative around vaccination data. It’s always important to look deeper into how these numbers are calculated rather than just accepting headlines at face drake iceman quilted jacket value. Definitely a thought-provoking read.
Installing the Astute Beta Server APK on your Android device is simple if you follow these steps carefully. First, download the APK file from the official website. Next, go to your device’s Settings, tap Security, and enable "Install from Unknown Sources." Once enabled, locate the downloaded APK file in your Downloads folder and tap it to begin installation. Follow the on-screen instructions to complete the process. After installation, open the Astute Beta Server app and configure the settings as needed. Always ensure you're downloading the latest version to enjoy improved features and better performance.
Hannah Fry needs a simple medical procedure done--the craniorectotomy. After that, her thinking will likely improve.
Damned by a few simple mathematical calculations. It seems very likely that the ONS estimate is wildly wrong.
As they are only using people registered with a GP, I can think of one reason why the estimate might be so wildly wrong: GPs are routinely reporting unvaccinated patients as having been vaccinated. There is some anecdotal evidence that this may be the case and the motivation might be the fact that GPs are paid by the government for each person that they manage to coerce to be jabbed. How likely is this? I don't really know. We need a lot more unjabbed adults to interrogate their GP vaccination records.
There is another possibility that the estimate may actually be correct,…