top of page

About that ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated....

Updated: Oct 18, 2022

However they spin it the ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated compromises their conclusions on vaccine safety.

13 Oct 2022 Update: This work has been censored again by the preprint server arXiv. I submitted this version of the paper below. Having got an automated message from them saying it was scheduled to be announced on 10 October they now say it “was identified by arXiv staff or moderators as needing further attention.” It is now "on hold". Based on my recent experience that means they will not accept it. The whole point of these preprint servers is to put out papers not yet reviewed. Until I started submitting papers highlighting issues with covid data I'd never even heard of a paper being put on hold and rejected by them. Fortunately ResearchGate still allows anything to be published. However, as it gets funding from Wellcome Trust and Bill Gates it's not clear how long that will last....

Spoiler: In May 2022 the ONS estimated just 8% of adults in England were unvaccinated. But this was based on their (biased) subset of the England population. If their estimate is correct and other independent estimates for the whole population are also correct then between 69% and 99.6% of adults missing from their sample are unvaccinated.

Here are the formal calculations (this is a taster for a more extensive analysis of the latest ONS vaccine mortality surveillance report):

proportion_calculation blog post
Download PDF • 255KB

John Campbell has done a 13 minute video summarising the issue and my paper:

2,531 views6 comments

6 comentários

Hannah Fry needs a simple medical procedure done--the craniorectotomy. After that, her thinking will likely improve.


Damned by a few simple mathematical calculations. It seems very likely that the ONS estimate is wildly wrong.

As they are only using people registered with a GP, I can think of one reason why the estimate might be so wildly wrong: GPs are routinely reporting unvaccinated patients as having been vaccinated. There is some anecdotal evidence that this may be the case and the motivation might be the fact that GPs are paid by the government for each person that they manage to coerce to be jabbed. How likely is this? I don't really know. We need a lot more unjabbed adults to interrogate their GP vaccination records.

There is another possibility that the estimate may actually be correct,…


It's a very sad day, when the government organization charged with monitoring population wide trends and staffed with some of the most well qualified and experienced statisticians in the country, deliberately obfuscate the figures for political reasons. I say deliberately, because I suspect that the selection process to be recruited as a statistician for the ONS is very rigorous and such people will be quite capable of performing the same analyses as Professor Fenton. It is not as though the Professor is applying advanced Bayesian techniques in his analyses. He may well be doing that in private, but he certainly is not doing it in his newsletters because he knows full well that most people will become glassy eyed af…

Respondendo a

Just heat the tar really hot when you tar and feather the prevaricating bastards.


Please keep up the good work Professor Fenton. "When the people start to reason, all is lost" Voltaire

bottom of page