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About that ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated....

Updated: Oct 18, 2022

However they spin it the ONS estimate of only 8% adults unvaccinated compromises their conclusions on vaccine safety.

13 Oct 2022 Update: This work has been censored again by the preprint server arXiv. I submitted this version of the paper below. Having got an automated message from them saying it was scheduled to be announced on 10 October they now say it “was identified by arXiv staff or moderators as needing further attention.” It is now "on hold". Based on my recent experience that means they will not accept it. The whole point of these preprint servers is to put out papers not yet reviewed. Until I started submitting papers highlighting issues with covid data I'd never even heard of a paper being put on hold and rejected by them. Fortunately ResearchGate still allows anything to be published. However, as it gets funding from Wellcome Trust and Bill Gates it's not clear how long that will last....

Spoiler: In May 2022 the ONS estimated just 8% of adults in England were unvaccinated. But this was based on their (biased) subset of the England population. If their estimate is correct and other independent estimates for the whole population are also correct then between 69% and 99.6% of adults missing from their sample are unvaccinated.

Here are the formal calculations (this is a taster for a more extensive analysis of the latest ONS vaccine mortality surveillance report):

proportion_calculation blog post
Download PDF • 255KB

John Campbell has done a 13 minute video summarising the issue and my paper:

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